Ferrari and McLaren optimistic for Canada, Red Bull believes it will return on top (2024)

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The last three Formula 1 Grand Prix races have been won by three different teams: McLaren secured the race victory in the Miami Grand Prix with Lando Norris, Red Bull was on top at the Imola circuit with Max Verstappen and Scuderia Ferrari celebrated an amazing race win on the streets of Monte Carlo thanks to Charles Leclerc last weekend. Such alternation was hardly predictable at the start of the 2024 Formula 1 championship, when the reigning world champion team seemed destined to dominate – sportingly speaking – for the second consecutive F1 season. Moreover, the performance ranking shows the Austrian team declining compared to their rivals: in the Monaco Grand Prix, the RB20 single-seater stayed far from the podium, and looking at the drivers, Sergio Perez has embarked on a new series of lackluster performances reminiscent of 2023. The calendar now shifts focus on the Canadian Grand Prix, another event for which the predictions are very difficult to make, made even more uncertain by the new resurfacing of the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve track which will bring new unknowns.

Despite the cracks that have emerged in the last month, Red Bull’s confidence in their capabilities has not been shaken. Team principal Christian Horner analyzed the championship situation after the first eight rounds, noting that McLaren has made a big step forward, while the Maranello team’s progress has been more subtle. He pointed out that the championship is entering a crucial phase with upcoming races in Canada, Spain, Austria, and Great Britain, emphasizing that it is a marathon, not a sprint.

Christian Horner admitted that the Monte Carlo circuit highlighted the RB20’s weaknesses, but also pointed out that previous results demonstrate the car’s quality. Red Bull had expected Monaco to be a difficult weekend and took nothing for granted, but the team principal thinks the upcoming tracks will play more to the car’s strengths. So far, they have won five Grands Prix, two Sprint races, and secured second place in the Miami Grand Prix. Monaco was the only circuit that didn’t allow them to leverage their strengths, so they need to understand their weaknesses and address them.

Among the upcoming races, the Canadian Grand Prix might be the most challenging for Red Bull. Historically, they have performed well there, but the entire circuit has been resurfaced, adding uncertainty. Ferrari and McLaren are fast, and there has always been a convergence in performance. Historically, there is a lot of traction in Montreal, but with a new surface, the balance and who it will favor are unpredictable.

The two main rivals of Red Bull feel that the balance of power is no longer so skewed towards the Austrian team. Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur, after the triumph in Monte Carlo, highlighted the progress made by the Maranello team in the last 6-7 months. The Italian side has become much more opportunistic, not wasting opportunities as often happened in the recent past. For the upcoming races, Frederic Vasseur expects a great balance, noting that the top three teams are within a tenth. In Miami, they finished 2 seconds behind Max Verstappen after 40 laps, and in Imola, they were 6 seconds behind after 36 laps. There will be circuits that favor one team over another, but the difference will be just a tenth or a tenth and a half, according to the French manager.

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Looking specifically at the Canadian Grand Prix at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, the Ferrari pit wall boss highlights the characteristics of the track, which should ensure a balance among the top teams. Montreal is almost the opposite of Monaco in terms of speed and downforce, but it also has curbs, many slow corners, chicanes, and so on. Some corners are similar to those in Monte Carlo. Overall, based on the performances in Melbourne, Imola, and Miami, with different types of compounds, layouts, and surfaces, the race is expected to be very competitive until the end.

Great optimism is felt at McLaren, which has probably been the most consistent in high-level performances since debuting the new upgrade package during the Miami Grand Prix weekend. After securing second and fourth places in Monte Carlo, team principal Andrea Stella noted that they have collected many points, which proves they can be regular podium contenders. The team therefore looks to the upcoming races with optimism.

Oscar Piastri, a key figure in the Principality, confirmed this sentiment. He pointed out that they have been competitive on three very different circuits in the last three races. Miami was one of the worst circuits for them before this year, Imola has always been favorable, and they had a very strong weekend there. As for Monte Carlo, their car has never been the strongest in slow corners, yet they were very fast again. This progress was proudly highlighted by Andrea Stella after the qualifying session for the Monaco Grand Prix, as the picture of their competitiveness is finally starting to change, with low speed no longer appearing as a clear weakness for his team. This situation has been modified thanks to developments and udpates introduced on the MCL38 single-seater in the last few months.

Oscar Piastri now expects McLaren to be competitive on every type of circuit, predicting a great battle among the top teams. He feels confident that they no longer have to rely on high-speed circuits as they did last year to get their results, which is very exciting. He believes the hierarchical order is closer than ever, so they can definitely be in the fight at every race.

Mercedes remains behind the top three teams. The team led by Toto Wolff currently has to settle for the role of the fourth contender, capable of snatching some points when someone ahead has a bad day. This happened on the streets of Monte Carlo with Red Bull, as Max Verstappen was sandwiched between the cars of George Russell and Lewis Hamilton due to a mistake made on his last flying lap in the qualifying session.

Andrew Shovlin, track engineering director at Mercedes, looking ahead to the next event in Canada, highlighted how little was missing in Monaco to achieve an even better result than George Russell’s fifth place. They hope to build on the recent momentum, closing the gap to the leaders. They still need to break into those teams, and it was frustrating how for the second consecutive race George Russell was a thousandth of a second away from another qualifying position. He was a few hundredths of a second away from placing third on the grid. The team wants to continue in this direction.

Ahead of the Canadian Grand Prix, Mercedes will continue to introduce some updates to the W15. The Montreal track, however, has slow corners alternating with long straights where top speed is important, unlike what was seen last weekend in Monte Carlo. This is not ideal for a car that has struggled to find the right balance between slow and fast corners. Andrew Shovlin added that they will have some minor updates and definitely the new front wing on both Mercedes cars. The track has been completely resurfaced, so they will see if the graining problems they had in Monaco persist. The difference in Canada is that you can’t drive slowly, or you’ll get overtaken. The corner speeds are like in Monte Carlo, but Montreal has big and long straights, which means that teams usually don’t use a wing with maximum aerodynamic load, lowering the drag a bit to better handle those straights. Mercedes therefore need to have a decent pace in the corners, as they hope to continue this momentum and improve their recent qualifying positions.

Looking back at Ferrari, Frederic Vasseur fuels fans’ dreams when addressing some of the key topics of the current Formula 1 environment. The Ferrari Team Principal remains cryptic about the rumored talks with Adrian Newey while sending a hopeful signal to the fans, indicating that new updates for the SF-24 car will arrive soon, which will be crucial for the battle in both the Formula 1 drivers’ and constructors’ championships.

Scuderia Ferrari currently has 252 points, 24 less than Red Bull. Although this is still far from the top, it is not impossible to close the gap. The victories of Carlos Sainz at the Albert Park circuit in Melbourne and Charles Leclerc in Monaco have reopened the championship, and Ferrari must take advantage of Red Bull’s current vulnerability. Fred Vasseur also addressed recent rumors about Ferrari introducing a new upgrade package at the Silverstone circuit. The French manager pointed out that they received the latest package a week ago, so it is a bit too early to speak with certainty about future developments. The Italian side is working on the upcoming updates and plans to bring its second aerodynamic package as soon as possible, but these updates must be implemented for valid reasons. Therefore, it is unclear if the rumored package will arrive for the British Grand Prix.

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