Here are some of the most interesting storylines heading into Week 5 (May 1-7) of the Fantasy season.
Brewers are on the road
Once again, every team in the majors plays at least six games this week, so there aren't any obvious teams to avoid.
However, it is worth noting that the Brewers are set to play the entire week away from Miller Park. That hasn't been a problem for them yet -- the team's collective OPS is actually higher on the road -- but it's always noteworthy when they are away from one of the best hitting parks in baseball. If they can keep mashing on the road, this might really be one of the best offenses in baseball, so we'll see how Travis Shaw, Ryan Braun, Eric Thamesand the rest of them handle the bat this week. At the very least, you aren't sitting any of the big names here with seven games on the schedule, no matter where the games are.
6 games:ARI, COL, LAA, LAD, MIN, NYY, OAK, SD, SEA, SF, TOR, WAS
7 games:BAL, BOS, CHC, CHW, CIN, CLE, DET, HOU, KC, MIA, MIL, NYM, PHI, PIT, STL, TB, TEX
The Mets may not have any healthy bodies left
Noah Syndergaard was scratched from Thursday's start with biceps tendinitis. Matt Harvey, who replaced him, labored through a dreadful start against the Braves, averaging just 93.0 MPH with his fastball per Statcast data, a full MPH below his previous outing. Harvey looked to be struggling with his arm at one point, and even went into the clubhouse with the trainer to be checked.
Oh, and Robert Gsellman continues to be a disaster as the No. 5 starter, and Zack Wheeler can't get through the sixth inning. Outside of Jacob deGrom, things don't look good right now. And that's not even getting to their litany of offensive injuries, highlighted by Yoenis Cespedes' hamstring. He tried to play through it in recent days, but had to be helped off the field Thursday after tweaking it yet again. This looked like it should be one of the best teams in baseball, but the way they look now shouldn't scare you off from any matchups against their pitchers or hitters, at least until Harvey gets right or Syndergaard gets healthy.
Big names heating up
Giancarlo Stanton
NYY • RF • #27
wOBA (last week).528
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Last season was a rough one for Stanton, who added a long slump to his typical struggles staying healthy. However, he has managed to cut his strikeout rate in the early going, and is on a nice run after a bit of a slow start. He is the kind of player Fantasy players tend to panic about at the first sign of a slowdown, but Stanton looks like himself again.
Paul Goldschmidt
STL • 1B • #46
wOBA (last week).637
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Goldschmidt has reached base in six straight entering play Thursday, bringing his season OPS back over 1.000. He took a bit of a step backward last season as a power hitter, but sports a .243 ISO after 23 games, a nice return to where he was before 2015. However, the looming installation of a humidor in Chase Field should be on your mind; there is some concern the humidor could suppress homers in Chase Field by as much as 25 percent for a full season.
Trea Turner
PHI • SS • #7
wOBA (last week).598
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There's no place like Coors. Admit it, you were concerned about Turner after his slow start, and the DL stint certainly didn't help. After four games in the thin air in Colorado, all of a sudden Turner looks like himself again. The magic of small sample sizes!
Corey Seager
TEX • SS • #5
wOBA (last week).530
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After struggling with a back/oblique injury in the spring, Seager has actually been pretty consistent overall this season. His OPS hasn't been below .800 since Game Three. However, he has found his power a bit of late, hitting two homers over the past five starts, bringing his season numbers right to where you expected them to be.
Justin Upton
SEA • LF • #8
wOBA (last week).515
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Upton is never as good as his best stretch, nor as bad as his worst stretch. You just have to hope he avoids some of the really long bad stretches that can sink a whole season. With a .991 OPS and his lowest strikeout rate since 2012 -- and his lowest swinging strike rate ever! -- Upton looks locked in.
Outperforming expected wOBA
MLB.com recently introduced a stat that attempts to quantify how well a batter has been hitting the ball, regardless of results -- as explained here. Let's look at some players who have had better results than expected, followed by those who have been worse.
Bryce Harper
PHI • RF • #3
Expected wOBA.456
Actual wOBA.566
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Eric Thames
OAK • 1B
Expected wOBA.452
Actual wOBA.560
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Harper and Thames have been the two best hitters in baseball, but both are obviously playing over their heads. You didn't need any kind of fancy stat to tell you that. The good news is, both are hitting the ball hard all over the field, and their expected wOBA would both have led the majors a year ago. Either or both will slow down at some point, but these look like two of the best hitters in baseball right now by any measure, and this certainly backs that up.
Zack Cozart
SF • SS
Expected wOBA.354
Actual wOBA.494
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Starlin Castro
WAS • 2B • #13
Expected wOBA.300
Actual wOBA.398
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Steven Souza
SEA • RF • #21
Expected wOBA.317
Actual wOBA.410
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Here is where the concern should be. All three have been unexpectedly helpful for Fantasy, but all three have also benefitted quite a bit from some apparent good luck.
In Cozart's case, it's not unrealistic to think he might have value even when he slows down, because we've seen it in the past. He has 20-homer potential, and has become a much more selective hitter this season, dropping his swing rate from 47.1 to 37.6 percent. That has helped drive his improved walk rate, a nice development for a player who has long been a bit too aggressive. There's no guarantee this sticks, but Cozart does look like a better hitter so far.
Castro and Souza are perhaps more concerning, though at this point I can't imagine anyone is really buying into a hot start for Castro. Souza, on the other hand, still seems to have some unfulfilled potential, and maybe this is what it looks like when he fulfills it. After all, he has dramatically improved his strikeout rate, going from 33.9 percent in his first two seasons to just 25.0 in the first 23 games. On the other hand, he has struck out at least once in his last 16 games, with a 32.9 percent K-rate in that span, so maybe he hasn't changed.
Underperforming expected wOBA
Joe Mauer
MIN • 1B • #7
Expected wOBA.355
Actual wOBA.252
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While Mauer may be hitting the ball a bit better than his overall numbers indicate, the extreme shifting he faces both in the infield and outfield probably doom him to worse numbers than would otherwise be expected.
Devon Travis
TOR • 2B • #29
Expected wOBA.294
Actual wOBA.168
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At least by this measure, no player in baseball has been more unlucky than Travis, which is a relief. On the other hand, a .294 wOBA, while an improvement for Travis, would hardly be anything to write home about. It is roughly what Kevin Pillar and Melvin Upton managed last season. The promise Travis showed in his first two seasons in the majors just hasn't showed up so far.
Hanley Ramirez
CLE • DH • #13
Expected wOBA.385
Actual wOBA.267
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Carlos Correa
MIN • SS • #4
Expected wOBA.386
Actual wOBA.283
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This is more like it. I'm sure you're worried about these two slow starters, but both are hitting the ball hard, which is a very good sign. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on these two to figure things out before long, which should lead to great production.
Look for changes in strikeout rate
You don't need to pile up big numbers of swinging strikes to get strikeouts, but it certainly helps. A called strike three is nice, but you're leaving yourself at the mercy of the umpire, whereas a swing and miss leaves no doubt. A pitcher who racks up strikeouts without swinging strikes might be one who will struggle to keep it going, and you'd be smart to bet on a pitcher racking up tons of swings and misses to start to rack up strikeouts too.
One reason this might matter is that swinging strike rate stabilizes more quickly than strikeout rate, so it might be a better measure of where a pitcher is right now. Let's look at candidates for both sides, starting with pitchers who rank more highly in strikeout rate than swinging strike rate:
More strikeouts than swinging strikes
Jake Arrieta
SD • SP • #49
K% rank1,100.0
Swinging strike % rank3,800.0
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Justin Verlander
HOU • SP • #35
K% rank4,000.0
Swinging strike % rank7,000.0
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Jose Quintana
NYM • SP • #62
K% rank3,400.0
Swinging strike % rank7,900.0
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Wade Miley
MIL • SP • #20
K% rank800.0
Swinging strike % rank6,200.0
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Trevor Bauer
LAD • SP • #27
K% rank1,800.0
Swinging strike % rank6,300.0
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It shouldn't be a surprise to see Miley, Bauer or Quintana here, especially because Miley's strikeout rate might be the most unexpected thing in baseball right now. However, Verlander and Arrieta are interesting. Verlander's swinging strike rate has dipped to 8.6 percent, his lowest since 2014 when he ended up with his lowest K/9 (6.95) since he was a rookie.
At least Verlander is still throwing hard. Arrieta's average fastball has dipped 2 mph, per PITCHf/x, a pretty substantial drop from one year to the next. His swinging strike rate has remained unchanged from last season, which is a good sign, but you probably shouldn't be buying him as a strikeout-per-inning pitcher again.
More swinging strikes than strikeouts
Danny Duffy
TEX • SP • #24
K% rank6,700.0
Swinging strike % rank1,300.0
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Masahiro Tanaka
SP
K% rank6,000.0
Swinging strike % rank1,100.0
Kevin Gausman
TOR • SP • #34
K% rank7,200.0
Swinging strike % rank2,800.0
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CC Sabathia
NYY • SP • #52
K% rank9,300.0
Swinging strike % rank3,400.0
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Jaime Garcia
CHC • SP • #64
K% rank9,700.0
Swinging strike % rank4,600.0
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There are some interesting names here, though we can probably throw Garcia and Sabathia out. Neither is likely to pick up many strikeouts, and I would bet on the swinging strike rate regressing faster than the K-rate.
Duffy has received plenty of attention from me over the past week, so I won't belabor the point much. His fastball velocity is down, and his strikeout rate is up, but Duffy is getting swings and misses at the same pace as a year ago. He might just be having trouble finishing off hitters, which might be a result of him having to rely on his changeup and slider more earlier in at-bats. Or, it could just be random. There's no easy, obvious answer.
Neither Tanaka nor Gausman has been particularly impressive overall, but the swings and misses are still there, which is a positive sign if you're looking for one. Tanaka is already starting to turn things around, and Gausman could be on the verge of doing so if he can find his splitter.
